The Philippines may post a record-high palay (unhusked rice) harvest of 20.2 million metric tons (MT) by the end of 2025, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said Tuesday.

In a Palace press briefing, DA spokesperson Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said the projected volume would surpass the previous record of 20.06 million MT in 2023.

“With conservative estimates, this will become another record harvest for us this year at 20.2 million metric tons,” he said.

The outlook already factors in the effects of several weather disturbances, with around 7.5 million MT of palay expected to be harvested in the last quarter of the year.

Average annual production losses due to natural calamities in the Philippines range from 500,000 MT to 600,000 MT, with damage peaking at about 1 million MT in 2024 because of El Niño, successive storms, and La Niña.

“This may even increase depending on the effects of typhoons—hopefully there will not be much anymore,” de Mesa said, citing the higher end of the projection range at 20.5 million MT.

The 20.2 million MT outlook includes the 9.08 million MT record harvest during the first semester, 3.8 million MT production in the third quarter, and the projected last quarter output.

De Mesa assured that Typhoon Tino (international name Kalmaegi) would have no significant impact on the rice sector as it crosses parts of the Visayas.

“It’s not a major concern, except in Iloilo, a key rice-producing area. But most farmers have already harvested, so the impact on the rice industry will be minimal,” he said.

Palay prices

De Mesa expressed hope that the ongoing extension of the rice import ban would continue to push up farmgate prices of palay amid the harvest season.

From PHP8 to PHP10 per kg. in previous weeks, farmgate prices have now reached PHP14 to PHP17 per kg., and even up to PHP20 per kg. in some areas since the import ban took effect.

“We expect prices to continue increasing if the import ban remains in place until December,” he said.

According to the DA, a favorable buying range for farmers is PHP17 per kg. for wet and fresh palay, and PHP21 to PHP23 per kg. for clean and dry palay.

The current production cost for Filipino rice farmers is estimated at PHP13 to PHP14 per kg. (PNA)